2026 World Cup · Complete
Spain won the World Cup. 4 of 40 models called it.
Every model predicted all 104 matches before the opening kickoff — locked and SHA-256 pre-registered — and then predicted each knockout round again as the real bracket emerged. Two tracks, two different winners.
Champion
Spain
Picked by 4 of 40 models
The two boards disagree. Claude Fable 5 won the locked benchmark on 226 points, then finished #39 of 39 once it had to call each round as it came — the track GLM 4.7 Flash won.
Next · Season 2026-27
Explore the leagues →The same benchmark moves to the European leagues
Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 from August 16, with the Bundesliga and Champions League following. Every matchday, all 40 models predict every scoreline — this time shown the current table and each team's recent form — locked and hashed about 36 hours before the first kickoff.
Leaderboard
| # | Model | Total | Champion pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 226 | Argentina | |
| 2 | 201 | Spain | |
| 3 | 193 | Argentina | |
| 4 | 193 | Spain | |
| 5 | 192 | Argentina | |
| 6 | 186 | Brazil | |
| 7 | 185 | Germany | |
| 8 | 183 | Netherlands | |
| 9 | 181 | Argentina | |
| 10 | 180 | Brazil | |
| 11 | 179 | France | |
| 12 | 178 | Argentina | |
| 13 | 176 | Germany | |
| 14 | 175 | Germany | |
| 15 | 171 | Spain | |
| 16 | 171 | Brazil | |
| 17 | 170 | Germany | |
| 18 | 169 | France | |
| 19 | 169 | Argentina | |
| 20 | 167 | France | |
| 21 | 167 | France | |
| 22 | 167 | Argentina | |
| 23 | 166 | Germany | |
| 24 | 161 | France | |
| 25 | 160 | Brazil | |
| 26 | 154 | Spain | |
| 27 | 152 | France | |
| 27 | 152 | Germany | |
| 29 | 150 | Brazil | |
| 30 | 141 | Germany | |
| 31 | 137 | Brazil | |
| 32 | 137 | Brazil | |
| 33 | 136 | Germany | |
| 34 | 135 | Mexico | |
| 35 | 134 | Brazil | |
| 36 | 133 | Brazil | |
| 37 | 125 | Germany | |
| 38 | 121 | France | |
| 39 | 120 | Brazil | |
| 40 | 108 | Netherlands |
Total = group match points (exact 3 · goal difference 2 · outcome 1) + bracket points: advancement for every real team a model had reaching each stage (R32 1 · R16 2 · QF 3 · SF 5 · final 8 · champion 13), +1 per simulated pairing that actually occurs, and matched pairings' scorelines scored like normal matches. Bracket points pay out once the real knockout bracket forms. Tiebreakers: points → exact scores → correct champion → correct R32 qualifiers.
…and their champions
Champion picks aren't standalone guesses — each one is simply where that model's complete simulated tournament ends: 72 group scores rolled into group tables, then its own bracket from the Round of 32 through the final (see Claude Fable 5's full bracket for an example).
Brazil ×10
Grok 4.3 · Claude Opus 4.8 · Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview · Gemini 3.5 Flash · Grok 4.20 · Qwen3.6 Flash · Jamba Large 1.7 · Claude 3 Haiku · Llama 4 Scout · Llama 3 70B
Germany ×9
GLM 5.1 · GPT-5.4 Mini · Mistral Medium 3.5 · Claude Haiku 4.5 · Kimi K2.6 · Nova 2 Lite · Hermes 3 405B · GLM 4.7 Flash · Qwen 2.5 72B
Argentina ×7
Claude Fable 5 · GPT-5.5 · Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite · Mistral Small 4 · DeepSeek V4 Pro · GPT-4o · Qwen3.7 Plus
France ×7
GPT-4 · WizardLM-2 8x22B · Gemma 2 27B · Nemotron 3 Ultra · Qwen3.7 Max · Command A · GPT-3.5 Turbo
Spain ×4
Netherlands ×2
Mexico ×1
What is this?
Before the opening kickoff, 40 large language models each predicted the entire 2026 World Cup — all 72 group-stage scorelines plus their own knockout bracket through to a champion — locked and SHA-256 pre-registered so nothing can be edited after the fact. Reality grades every claim: group matches on exact score, goal difference and outcome; brackets on the real teams, pairings and scorelines each model called. Every model page shows its complete predicted tournament — group tables and full bracket.