Mercury 2
oddballInception · inception/mercury-2
Knowledge cutoff: not published · context 128,000 tokens
Total points
0
Rank
—
Group pts
0
Bracket pts
0
Exact
0
Champion pick
Spain
Predicted group tables
The group stage exactly as this model imagined it, computed from its own 72 predicted scorelines with FIFA tiebreakers. Green rows qualify directly, blue rows are its eight best third-placed teams (slotted into the Round of 32 via FIFA's Annexe C table).
Group A
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 7 | +3 | 5 |
| 2 | South Korea | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 3 | Czech Republic | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | South Africa | 1 | -3 | 2 |
Group B
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 9 | +7 | 8 |
| 2 | Canada | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Qatar | 1 | -4 | 2 |
Group C
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 9 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Morocco | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 0 | -8 | 0 |
Group D
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 9 | +7 | 8 |
| 2 | Paraguay | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Australia | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Turkey | 1 | -4 | 2 |
Group E
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 9 | +9 | 11 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 0 | -9 | 0 |
Group F
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 7 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Sweden | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Japan | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 0 | -8 | 0 |
Group G
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 7 | +3 | 4 |
| 2 | Egypt | 5 | +3 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 0 | -6 | 1 |
Group H
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 9 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Uruguay | 6 | +3 | 5 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Cape Verde | 0 | -7 | 0 |
Group I
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 9 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Senegal | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Norway | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Iraq | 0 | -9 | 0 |
Group J
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 9 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Algeria | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Austria | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Jordan | 0 | -6 | 0 |
Group K
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 9 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Colombia | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Uzbekistan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | DR Congo | 1 | -4 | 1 |
Group L
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 7 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 7 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Panama | 0 | -6 | 2 |
Predicted bracket
The knockout tournament that follows from this model's own predictions: each card is a simulated pairing with the model's predicted 90-minute score (the advancing team is highlighted; “adv” marks a predicted draw decided after 90 minutes).
Round of 32
M73
M74
M75
M76
M77
M78
M79
M80
M81
M82
M83
M84
M85
M86
M87
M88
Round of 16
M89
M90
M91
M92
adv: England
M93
M94
adv: United States
M95
M96
adv: Portugal
Quarter-finals
M97
M98
M99
adv: England
M100
Semi-finals
M101
adv: Spain
M102
Final
M104
Predicted champion
Spain
Third-place match
M103
Bracket points
Advancement
0
Matchups called
0
Matched scorelines
0
Bracket total
0
Scored against the real knockout tournament: advancement points for every real team this model had reaching each stage (R32 1 · R16 2 · QF 3 · SF 5 · final 8 · champion 13), +1 for each simulated pairing that actually occurs in that round, and matched pairings' scorelines scored like normal matches (3/2/1, +1 correct advancer). The real bracket doesn't exist yet — everything sits at 0 and starts paying out automatically once the real Round of 32 is set.
Collection runs
| Stage | Params | Attempts | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0021 |
| Round of 32 | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0013 |
| Round of 16 | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0009 |
| Quarter-finals | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0009 |
| Semi-finals | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0006 |
| Third-place match | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0005 |
| Final | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0005 |
Group-stage predictions
| # | Match | Predicted | Actual | Pts | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexicov South AfricaJun 11 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 2 | South Koreav Czech RepublicJun 12 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 3 | Canadav Bosnia and HerzegovinaJun 12 | 1-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 4 | United Statesv ParaguayJun 13 | 3-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 5 | Haitiv ScotlandJun 14 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 6 | Australiav TurkeyJun 14 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 7 | Brazilv MoroccoJun 13 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 8 | Qatarv SwitzerlandJun 13 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 9 | Ivory Coastv EcuadorJun 14 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 10 | Germanyv CuraçaoJun 14 | 4-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 11 | Netherlandsv JapanJun 14 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 12 | Swedenv TunisiaJun 15 | 3-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 13 | Saudi Arabiav UruguayJun 15 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 14 | Spainv Cape VerdeJun 15 | 3-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 15 | Iranv New ZealandJun 16 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 16 | Belgiumv EgyptJun 15 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 17 | Francev SenegalJun 16 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 18 | Iraqv NorwayJun 16 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 19 | Argentinav AlgeriaJun 17 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 20 | Austriav JordanJun 17 | 1-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 21 | Ghanav PanamaJun 17 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 22 | Englandv CroatiaJun 17 | 2-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 23 | Portugalv DR CongoJun 17 | 3-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 24 | Uzbekistanv ColombiaJun 18 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 25 | Czech Republicv South AfricaJun 18 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 26 | Switzerlandv Bosnia and HerzegovinaJun 18 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 27 | Canadav QatarJun 18 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 28 | Mexicov South KoreaJun 19 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 29 | Brazilv HaitiJun 20 | 4-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 30 | Scotlandv MoroccoJun 19 | 1-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 31 | Turkeyv ParaguayJun 20 | 1-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 32 | United Statesv AustraliaJun 19 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 33 | Germanyv Ivory CoastJun 20 | 3-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 34 | Ecuadorv CuraçaoJun 21 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 35 | Netherlandsv SwedenJun 20 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 36 | Tunisiav JapanJun 21 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 37 | Uruguayv Cape VerdeJun 21 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 38 | Spainv Saudi ArabiaJun 21 | 3-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 39 | Belgiumv IranJun 21 | 1-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 40 | New Zealandv EgyptJun 22 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 41 | Norwayv SenegalJun 23 | 2-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 42 | Francev IraqJun 22 | 4-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 43 | Argentinav AustriaJun 22 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 44 | Jordanv AlgeriaJun 23 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 45 | Englandv GhanaJun 23 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 46 | Panamav CroatiaJun 23 | 1-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 47 | Portugalv UzbekistanJun 23 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 48 | Colombiav DR CongoJun 24 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 49 | Scotlandv BrazilJun 24 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 50 | Moroccov HaitiJun 24 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 51 | Switzerlandv CanadaJun 24 | 3-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 52 | Bosnia and Herzegovinav QatarJun 24 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 53 | Czech Republicv MexicoJun 25 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 54 | South Africav South KoreaJun 25 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 55 | Curaçaov Ivory CoastJun 25 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 56 | Ecuadorv GermanyJun 25 | 1-4 | — | — | upcoming |
| 57 | Japanv SwedenJun 25 | 2-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 58 | Tunisiav NetherlandsJun 25 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 59 | Turkeyv United StatesJun 26 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 60 | Paraguayv AustraliaJun 26 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 61 | Norwayv FranceJun 26 | 0-4 | — | — | upcoming |
| 62 | Senegalv IraqJun 26 | 2-0 | — | — | upcoming |
| 63 | Egyptv IranJun 27 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 64 | New Zealandv BelgiumJun 27 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 65 | Cape Verdev Saudi ArabiaJun 27 | 0-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 66 | Uruguayv SpainJun 27 | 1-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 67 | Panamav EnglandJun 27 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 68 | Croatiav GhanaJun 27 | 2-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 69 | Algeriav AustriaJun 28 | 1-1 | — | — | upcoming |
| 70 | Jordanv ArgentinaJun 28 | 0-3 | — | — | upcoming |
| 71 | Colombiav PortugalJun 27 | 1-2 | — | — | upcoming |
| 72 | DR Congov UzbekistanJun 27 | 0-1 | — | — | upcoming |
“—” in the Predicted column means the model returned no valid prediction for that match (scores 0 once played). Knockout predictions live in the bracket above — they score via the bracket component, not match-by-match. Raw request/response logs for this model are published in the data exports.