Llama 4 Scout
smallMeta · meta-llama/llama-4-scout
Knowledge cutoff: 2024-08 · context 10,000,000 tokens
Total points
133
Rank
#36
Group pts
57
Bracket pts
76
Exact
7
Champion pick
Brazil
World Cup report card
a third of a cent and bottom of the table — it backed Brazil (out in the round of 16).
Champion pick
out in the round of 16
Locked bracket
#36
133 pts · locked pre-kickoff
Round-by-round
#23
52 pts · picked each round
Exact scorelines
7
called to the goal
Inference cost
$0.003
every prompt, every round
13 places better picking the real bracket round by round (#23) than in the tournament it locked in before kickoff (#36).
Two separate benchmarks. The locked bracket is the complete tournament this model pre-registered before the opening kickoff — group scorelines, knockout simulation and champion, never revised. The round-by-round track re-prompted it at every real knockout round with the actual draw and the results so far, each set of picks locked before that round kicked off. Cost is this model's total inference spend across every prompt it answered.
Prediction personality
Llama 4 Scout is the most upset-hungry model in the field, and slow to call a draw.
Goals / game
Balanced
2.53 goals per match
Draws
Decisive
8 of 72 called level
Chalk vs contrarian
Contrarian
sides with 55% of the field
Favourite bias
Hunts upsets
15 of 63 favourite matchups called as upsets
Style, not accuracy — derived from this model's 72 locked group-stage scorelines and compared with the other 39 models; it says nothing about whether the calls are right. “Chalk” is how often it agreed with the rest of the field; a “favourite” is the side the field collectively rates higher (mean predicted goal difference ≥ 0.5), not a bookmaker's.
Predicted group tables
The group stage exactly as this model imagined it, computed from its own 72 predicted scorelines with FIFA tiebreakers. Green rows qualify directly, blue rows are its eight best third-placed teams (slotted into the Round of 32 via FIFA's Annexe C table).
Group A
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | South Korea | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Czech Republic | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | South Africa | 3 | -2 | 2 |
Group B
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canada | 9 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Group C
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 9 | +9 | 10 |
| 2 | Morocco | 6 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 0 | -8 | 0 |
Group D
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 9 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Group E
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 9 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Germany | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Curaçao | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ecuador | 1 | -5 | 2 |
Group F
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 7 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Tunisia | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sweden | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Japan | 0 | -5 | 1 |
Group G
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 9 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Iran | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | New Zealand | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 4 | Egypt | 1 | -3 | 3 |
Group H
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 9 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Uruguay | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | -5 | 2 |
Group I
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 7 | +5 | 5 |
| 2 | Norway | 5 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 1 | -4 | 2 |
Group J
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 7 | +2 | 4 |
| 2 | Jordan | 6 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Austria | 1 | -3 | 2 |
Group K
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 7 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Portugal | 6 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Uzbekistan | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | DR Congo | 1 | -4 | 1 |
Group L
| # | Team | Pts | GD | GF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia | 6 | +2 | 5 |
| 2 | England | 6 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Panama | 3 | -2 | 4 |
Predicted bracket
The knockout tournament that follows from this model's own predictions: each card is a simulated pairing with the model's predicted 90-minute score (the advancing team is highlighted; “adv” marks a predicted draw decided after 90 minutes).
Round of 32
M73
M74
M75
M76
M77
M78
adv: Norway
M79
M80
M81
M82
M83
M84
M85
M86
adv: Uruguay
M87
M88
Round of 16
M89
M90
M91
M92
M93
M94
M95
adv: Iran
M96
Quarter-finals
M97
M98
M99
M100
Semi-finals
M101
M102
Final
M104
Predicted champion
Brazil
Third-place match
M103
Bracket points
Advancement
59
Matchups called
7
Matched scorelines
10
Bracket total
76
Scored against the real knockout tournament: advancement points for every real team this model had reaching each stage (R32 1 · R16 2 · QF 3 · SF 5 · final 8 · champion 13), +1 for each simulated pairing that actually occurs in that round, and matched pairings' scorelines scored like normal matches (3/2/1, +1 correct advancer).
Collection runs
| Stage | Params | Attempts | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0005 |
| Round of 32 | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0002 |
| Round of 16 | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0002 |
| Quarter-finals | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0002 |
| Semi-finals | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0002 |
| Third-place match | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0003 |
| Final | {"temperature":0} | 1 | $0.0002 |
Biggest hits
- Uzbekistan vs Colombia — predicted 1-3, actual 1-3 · 3 pts
- France vs Iraq — predicted 3-0, actual 3-0 · 3 pts
- Scotland vs Brazil — predicted 0-3, actual 0-3 · 3 pts
Worst misses
- Tunisia vs Japan — predicted 2-0, actual 0-4 · 6 goals off
- Sweden vs Tunisia — predicted 0-1, actual 5-1 · 5 goals off
- Norway vs France — predicted 0-0, actual 1-4 · 5 goals off
Group-stage predictions
| # | Match | Predicted | Actual | Pts | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexicov South AfricaJun 11 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 2 | South Koreav Czech RepublicJun 12 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | goal diff |
| 3 | Canadav Bosnia and HerzegovinaJun 12 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 4 | United Statesv ParaguayJun 13 | 2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | outcome |
| 5 | Haitiv ScotlandJun 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1 | outcome |
| 6 | Australiav TurkeyJun 14 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0 | miss |
| 7 | Brazilv MoroccoJun 13 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 8 | Qatarv SwitzerlandJun 13 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 9 | Ivory Coastv EcuadorJun 14 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 10 | Germanyv CuraçaoJun 14 | 4-0 | 7-1 | 1 | outcome |
| 11 | Netherlandsv JapanJun 14 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 0 | miss |
| 12 | Swedenv TunisiaJun 15 | 0-1 | 5-1 | 0 | miss |
| 13 | Saudi Arabiav UruguayJun 15 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 14 | Spainv Cape VerdeJun 15 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0 | miss |
| 15 | Iranv New ZealandJun 16 | 2-0 | 2-2 | 0 | miss |
| 16 | Belgiumv EgyptJun 15 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 17 | Francev SenegalJun 16 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | goal diff |
| 18 | Iraqv NorwayJun 16 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 0 | miss |
| 19 | Argentinav AlgeriaJun 17 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 20 | Austriav JordanJun 17 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0 | miss |
| 21 | Ghanav PanamaJun 17 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 2 | goal diff |
| 22 | Englandv CroatiaJun 17 | 1-0 | 4-2 | 1 | outcome |
| 23 | Portugalv DR CongoJun 17 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 24 | Uzbekistanv ColombiaJun 18 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 3 | exact |
| 25 | Czech Republicv South AfricaJun 18 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 26 | Switzerlandv Bosnia and HerzegovinaJun 18 | 2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | outcome |
| 27 | Canadav QatarJun 18 | 1-0 | 6-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 28 | Mexicov South KoreaJun 19 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 29 | Brazilv HaitiJun 20 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 30 | Scotlandv MoroccoJun 19 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2 | goal diff |
| 31 | Turkeyv ParaguayJun 20 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1 | outcome |
| 32 | United Statesv AustraliaJun 19 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 33 | Germanyv Ivory CoastJun 20 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0 | miss |
| 34 | Ecuadorv CuraçaoJun 21 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | miss |
| 35 | Netherlandsv SwedenJun 20 | 1-1 | 5-1 | 0 | miss |
| 36 | Tunisiav JapanJun 21 | 2-0 | 0-4 | 0 | miss |
| 37 | Uruguayv Cape VerdeJun 21 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | goal diff |
| 38 | Spainv Saudi ArabiaJun 21 | 3-1 | 4-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 39 | Belgiumv IranJun 21 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0 | miss |
| 40 | New Zealandv EgyptJun 22 | 2-1 | 1-3 | 0 | miss |
| 41 | Norwayv SenegalJun 23 | 2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | goal diff |
| 42 | Francev IraqJun 22 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | exact |
| 43 | Argentinav AustriaJun 22 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 0 | miss |
| 44 | Jordanv AlgeriaJun 23 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 0 | miss |
| 45 | Englandv GhanaJun 23 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0 | miss |
| 46 | Panamav CroatiaJun 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | outcome |
| 47 | Portugalv UzbekistanJun 23 | 3-0 | 5-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 48 | Colombiav DR CongoJun 24 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0 | miss |
| 49 | Scotlandv BrazilJun 24 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | exact |
| 50 | Moroccov HaitiJun 24 | 2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | goal diff |
| 51 | Switzerlandv CanadaJun 24 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0 | miss |
| 52 | Bosnia and Herzegovinav QatarJun 24 | 3-0 | 3-1 | 1 | outcome |
| 53 | Czech Republicv MexicoJun 25 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 0 | miss |
| 54 | South Africav South KoreaJun 25 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0 | miss |
| 55 | Curaçaov Ivory CoastJun 25 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | exact |
| 56 | Ecuadorv GermanyJun 25 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 0 | miss |
| 57 | Japanv SwedenJun 25 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0 | miss |
| 58 | Tunisiav NetherlandsJun 25 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 3 | exact |
| 59 | Turkeyv United StatesJun 26 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0 | miss |
| 60 | Paraguayv AustraliaJun 26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | miss |
| 61 | Norwayv FranceJun 26 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 0 | miss |
| 62 | Senegalv IraqJun 26 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 1 | outcome |
| 63 | Egyptv IranJun 27 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | exact |
| 64 | New Zealandv BelgiumJun 27 | 0-3 | 1-5 | 1 | outcome |
| 65 | Cape Verdev Saudi ArabiaJun 27 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0 | miss |
| 66 | Uruguayv SpainJun 27 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2 | goal diff |
| 67 | Panamav EnglandJun 27 | 1-0 | 0-2 | 0 | miss |
| 68 | Croatiav GhanaJun 27 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | exact |
| 69 | Algeriav AustriaJun 28 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 0 | miss |
| 70 | Jordanv ArgentinaJun 28 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | outcome |
| 71 | Colombiav PortugalJun 27 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0 | miss |
| 72 | DR Congov UzbekistanJun 27 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0 | miss |
“—” in the Predicted column means the model returned no valid prediction for that match (scores 0 once played). Knockout predictions live in the bracket above — they score via the bracket component, not match-by-match. Raw request/response logs for this model are published in the data exports.