Shown the real Round of 16 bracket and every result so far, each model predicted this exact tie directly — 38 of 38 models returned a valid pick.

Most-predicted score: 2–1 (21 of 38) · 23 of 38 back United States

Direct picks on the real fixture, scored like a group match (exact 3 · goal difference 2 · outcome 1) plus +1 for the correct advancing team — a separate benchmark from the locked self-consistent bracket. See the methodology.

Models whose own simulated Round of 16 contained this exact pairing (in either orientation), with the scoreline they attached to it — 37 of 40 models with a stored simulation for this round.

Scorelines are shown in this match's orientation (flipped when a model simulated the pairing the other way around). Each listed model also earns a +1 matchup bonus; scoreline points (3/2/1, +1 correct advancer) apply once the match is played.